The Future Won’t Sit Still. Set Direction Accordingly.
Many strategic planning approaches assume a single path. Organizations picture their “most likely” future or their “hoped-for” future and then work backward. They set goals, write strategies, pick measures, and then begin the work of implementation. But the future doesn’t sit still. It’s always uncertain and complex. That’s why traditional approaches often falter. When reality shifts, the plan no longer fits and can’t adjust to the new conditions.
So, what’s the alternative? How do you make decisions when prediction isn’t possible, but choices still matter?
One approach is to work with Critical Uncertainties in your strategy process. This Liberating Structure invites leaders to explore multiple plausible futures by asking a simple but disruptive question: What forces are impossible to predict or control, yet certain to shape our work?
Effective strategy requires being honest with ourselves and others: we don’t know (and can’t know) what will happen. That recognition allows teams to move from control to curiosity, from rigidity to responsiveness. It clears space for strategies that are sturdy enough to guide action and flexible enough to evolve.
Critical uncertainties might include funding swings, policy shifts, changes in community need, leadership turnover, or shifts in public sentiment. None of these lie completely within an organization’s control. Yet all of them shape the ground they stand on.
Naming and working with them helps organizations:
See a fuller range of possible futures
Surface assumptions before they take root
Spot robust strategies: actions worth taking in any possible future
Build shared understanding that supports adaptive decision-making over time
A Story from Practice
I facilitated a strategy session where a nonprofit’s board and staff named two key uncertainties: funding and demand for services. They pictured their most likely future as one of rising demand and insufficient resources. Together, they explored four different futures, including one in which money flowed more easily. Less than a month later, a grant changed the organization’s financial outlook. Because the group had already named and discussed that more financially secure future, they had a shared reference point to draw from. That groundwork left them better positioned to respond without starting from scratch. If we had explored just one version of the future, the strategic direction emerging from that work would likely have found its home on the proverbial “shelf.”
How It Works
One common way to use this method is to identify the two most critical uncertainties and place them on a 2x2 matrix, creating four quadrants that represent distinct futures. Each quadrant is then explored: What does this future look like? What opportunities or risks might arise? What strategies would help us thrive?
After naming and describing the futures, participants can identify:
Scenario-specific strategies that would only be relevant in that quadrant.
Robust strategies that show up across multiple quadrants and are likely worth investing in now.
Early indicators that might signal which quadrant the organization is moving toward.
This process is participatory, energizing, and accessible. Importantly, it produces strategies that won’t collapse at the first sign of change.
Traditional planning often treats change as a failure of forecasting, but an adaptive stance treats change as constant. The goal isn’t to get the future “right.” It’s to stay honest about what we can’t know, curious about what’s possible, and responsive to what unfolds.
Keep exploring
You can find the full Critical Uncertainties method at liberatingstructures.com/30-critical-uncertainties/.
If you’d like to explore how this approach could be a part of your next strategic planning process, I’d love to talk!
(Image description: My view as a passenger inside a van charting a rainy and uncertain course through the Mongolian countryside.)
